963
FXUS61 KAKQ 140743
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.

- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay
  and Tidal rivers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east)
as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with
mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.


2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting
through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east)
as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly
dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across
the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently
pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered
to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower
coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity
has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some
locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at
RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro
Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid
over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated
lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought.
Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as
expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through
around sunrise.

Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold
pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and
mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees
below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some
lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect
variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from
the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU.
Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated
showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem
to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a
little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW
as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds
are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday
morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting
through the middle of next week.

Models still signal that major changes are on the way heading
into the weekend and beyond. A flat upper ridge over the
southern US will start to amplify by the weekend and become
anchored from the Gulf coast to off the SE coast. Surface high
pressure parked offshore will allow southerly flow to prevail,
leading to above normal temperatures returning by the weekend,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely by Sunday. There
is a low probability for a shower/tstm Sunday aftn/evening
(mainly N/NE) as there are hints of a warm front stalling or
pushing back S slightly as a backdoor cold front. Overall
though, a mainly dry period is expected, especially Mon-Wed.
Current ensemble guidance shows a high probability for highs
into the 90-95 range Mon- Wed for much of the area, and the
antecedent drought conditions should make this rather easy to
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is pushing east through central VA early this
morning, and will be offshore by 12Z. Along and ahead of the
front (mainly to the E of RIC), scattered to numerous showers
can be expected, bringing a few hrs worth of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
(and brief IFR VSBYs to 1-2SM in the heaviest showers). An
isolated rumble or two of thunder is also possible, but has not
been included in any of the TAFs. Showers should gradually end
from W to E between 09-12Z. There still could be an isolated
shower or two potentially lingering into the afternoon in SE VA/NE
NC. Winds shift to the N-NW behind the front, and remain out of
the N and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late morning
through the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tonight, with NW winds and
clearing skies, though BKN clouds may linger or redevelop over
the NE at SBY overnight into Friday.  Dry and VFR conditions
continue Fri-Mon, though there could be isolated SHRA/TSRA
Sunday aftn/evening that would potentially lead to (brief)
flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal
rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early
next week with primarily southerly winds.

Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal
waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still
to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure
gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the
winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the
bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft
across the ocean.

Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters
shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the
waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the
front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across
the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with
gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the
front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers
and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am.
After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid-
afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of
the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance
hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours
causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or
slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will
increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near
shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to
decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high
pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure
moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ635>637-639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...HET

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion