897
FXUS61 KAKQ 230919
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
419 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and cold temperatures continue through today, with
strong high pressure over the region. Weak low pressure off the
southeast coast may bring light precipitation to portions of the
area Tuesday. Temperatures warm back to near normal by the
middle of the week, with milder weather and a more unsettled
pattern late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 410 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Cold and dry conditions continue today with high pressure
  remaining in control.

Early this morning, strong sfc high pressure (~1038 mb) was
centered from New England SSW over the Mid Atlc region. The sky
was clear or mostly clear across the area with temps ranging
from the mid teens to near 30 degrees.

The high becomes centered off the New England coast during
today. Under a sunny or mostly sunny sky, highs today will be
slightly warmer compared to Sun, with readings ranging from the
upper 30s NNW (mid 30s MD Eastern Shore), to the lower to mid
40s across the SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A light glaze of ice is possible early Tue morning across
  portions of south central VA, interior northeast NC, and
  western portions of the Tidewater.

- Dry weather will return for Christmas day and Christmas night.

Still watching closely the potential for a weak low pressure system
developing just off the SC coast late tonight. This low is then
fcst to move NE off the NC coast Tue into Tue night. Meanwhile,
cold high pressure will build from the Great Lakes ewrd toward
the New England states, while extending south toward the local
area. The low will spread moisture into southern and SE portions
of the region very late tonight into Tue morning timeframe,
continuing through Tue aftn/early Tue evening. Model soundings
show the potential for the pcpn starting out as freezing rain
early Tue morning, and transitioning to plain rain by mid morning
as temps rise. There are some limiting factors with this event
that are currently making for high uncertainty:

1) How far NNW does the moisture spread due to very dry air at
the sfc? It`s possible we may not see much moisture across our
local area at all (generally just 20-30% PoPs where freezing
rain is in the forecast).

2) Does WAA limit any ice accumulations (esply farther SE)?

For now, have a stripe of light ice accumulations from
Greensville county ewrd over to the western Tidewater and back
down into interior northeast NC. This is fairly close to 00z
HREF probs for accumulating ice which highlights this corridor
with ~20-40% probs. It should be noted that ice accumulations
are expected to be very light (only a couple of hundredths of
an inch), but any ice has the potential to be impactful, esply
on bridges or untreated roadways. The freezing rain threat comes
to an end by 10 AM Tue morning, with all pcpn changing over to
plain rain as temps rise. Up to 0.20" of rain will be possible
for locations along the Albemarle Sound through Tue aftn.

As for temps, low temperatures tonight quickly drop back into
the 20s for most of the area (lower 30s SE and along the coast)
before remaining steady or gradually rising during the second
half of the night as the system approaches. Highs on Tue will
range from the mid to upper 40s, with the sky becoming partly or
mostly sunny across the western half of the area during the
aftn.

The pcpn (rain) will end over SE areas early Tue night, and the
weak low will push out to sea Tue night into Wed morning as the
sfc high to the north builds down into the region. Lows will
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s Tue night, as the sky becomes
mostly clear to partly cloudy. Dry weather will return for
Christmas day and Christmas night, as the sfc high extends down
into the Mid Atlc region. Under a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy
sky, highs will be in the mid 40s to near 50 Wed, with lows in
the upper 20s to mid 30s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures gradually moderate through the forecast period.

- Generally quiet weather through the end of the week,
  potentially becoming more unsettled next weekend.

On Thu and beyond, sfc high pressure will continue to linger
near or over New England, while upper level ridging builds over
the Eastern US. With the ridging aloft, a moderating trend in
temps is expected through the period, with above average temps
returning on Sat and Sun. Partly to mostly sunny sky/dry wx
will prevail Thu and Fri. A variety of disturbances approach
the region from the west, but these likely avoid the area due to
the ridging aloft. The best chances for rainfall are late in
the weekend, as a stronger system approaches, but there is
still plenty of uncertainty regarding the specifics of this
system. It does appear that conditions become more unsettled
during the second half of the weekend and potentially into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites from
this morning into Tue morning. Dry/VFR and mostly clear with
winds less than 10 kt today into tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected into the first half of
tonight. Increasing moisture and more cloud cover (and possibly
some light rain or a light mix to ice) will occur, mainly in NE
NC and extrm SE VA very late tonight through Tue. Temps at the
main terminals should lead to just light rain with any -FZRA or
FZDZ more limited to areas farther inland. Nevertheless, a
period of sub-VFR CIGs at the SE terminals will be possible
during this timeframe. VFR conditions return at all sites
Tue night through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 410 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Weak low pressure develops offshore and south/southeast of the
area Tuesday, bringing some potential for elevated winds and seas
over the southern coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest analysis reveals 1037+mb sfc high pressure centered over the
northeast coast early this morning. Latest obs reflect NNE winds
averaging 10-15 kt. Seas remain 3-4 ft, with waves 2-3 ft in the
bay, 1-2 ft in the rivers and sound.

Winds gradually veer to the E through this afternoon, becoming SE
by this evening in response to high pressure sliding offshore of the
New England coast. Meanwhile, models continue to depict a coastal
trough sharpening up along the coastal Carolinas tonight and early
Tuesday, with weak low pressure developing Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The 00z CMC is farthest north, with the remainder of guidance
maintaining a farther S track. For that reason, have maintained sub-
SCA winds Tuesday and Wednesday. However, it seems the gradient does
tighten enough for winds to increase to ~ 15 kt over the southern
coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should allow for
seas to build to 3-4 ft with developing E/SE swell through this
period. A brief period of 5 ft seas are possible S of the VA/NC
border Wednesday morning. Otherwise, persistent E-NE winds 10-15 kt
are then expected for the remainder of the week with high pressure
located over New England. Seas generally remain 3-4 ft through the
mid to late week period, with waves 2-3 ft, highest in the lower
bay and lower James River.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/SW

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion