098
FXUS61 KAKQ 221052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts up the coast this morning into this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the area later this afternoon into
this evening bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across primarily northern portions of the area. Drier and cooler
conditions return Friday into Saturday as high pressure briefly
builds in. Unsettled weather moves in later Sunday into early next
week as another series of systems impacts the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across northern
portions of the area this afternoon into this evening.

Early this morning, ~1004 mb low pressure is centered off the
northern Outer Banks. Another area of ~1003 mb low pressure is
centered over Lake Erie. High pressure remains over Atlantic Canada,
with a surface ridge axis extending SW into the Mid-Atlantic,
resulting in a cold air damming pattern over the local area this
morning. Isolated to scattered shower/storms from earlier have moved
offshore. Drizzle and patchy fog will be possible through sunrise.
Conditions gradually begin to improve from south to north around
sunrise and especially after sunrise.

Low pressure offshore will continue to track further northeast up
the coast, pulling a frontal boundary north of the area this
morning. The parent low pressure system will remain situated over
the Great Lakes, but an associated cold front will slide through
locally this afternoon into this evening. This will bring a brief
chance of scattered showers a few thunderstorms. Best chances look
to be north of I-64 during the afternoon and into the evening hours,
including the Maryland Eastern Shore. While we are not in a severe
weather risk from SPC, cannot completely rule out a stronger storm
or two later this afternoon, especially over the Maryland Eastern
Shore. Decent lapse rates, combined with MLCAPE of ~500 to 750 J/kg
and modest shear (30 to 40 knots) on the backside of the
departing/deepening low pressure system will allow for at least the
potential for a few stronger wind gusts and potentially some hail.
If we are able to get more sunshine and warming, the threat will
increase. Elsewhere, dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s through
the day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Some afternoon westerly
breezes are expected as well. High temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 70s across the south, with low to mid 70s north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather is expected through the first half of the
Memorial Day Weekend.

The coastal low will continue to move up the coast Thursday night
and will be off the New England coast on Friday. High pressure
builds back into the local area Friday into Saturday, resulting in
cool and dry conditions. We should see a decent amount of sunshine
Friday, and especially Saturday with the high building closer to the
area. Daytime highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 70s for
much of the area, with some upper 60s possible across far northern
portions of the area and mid 70s across the southeast. Cool Friday
night, with lows dropping back into the 40s for most inland
locations (50s at the coast). Temperatures on Saturday will be a
degree or two warmer compared to Friday for most locations, with
highs in the low to mid 70s for much of the forecast area. Similar
low temperatures on Saturday night compared to Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems
approach the region.

On Sunday, global models continue to show another system approaching
the region that could bring some rainfall to our area. Overnight
model runs have continued to be a bit slower with the arrival of
this system and have suppressed it somewhat to the south. With this
in mind, we should hopefully be able to salvage most of Sunday, with
increasing cloud cover, but generally dry weather through the
daytime hours. High temperatures Sunday will range from the low to
mid 70s, but this will also be highly dependent on how the system
evolves. The weather pattern looks to become unsettled once again,
with one system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday and
another potentially Tuesday into Tuesday night (the Tuesday-Tuesday
night system will likely be the stronger of the two). The rain
chances will then linger into the midweek period.
Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May Sunday
into next week, with highs mainly in the 70s each day (some 80s far
SE) and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

A stratus deck lingers over the terminals this morning, with
MVFR to IFR CIGs at all sites. CIGs improve fairly quickly over
the next hour or two with low- level flow becoming WNW and
drier air filtering into the region. This should result in
stratus lifting and scattering from S-N by ~13-14z at the latest
for most sites, but lingering longer at SBY. A secondary cold
front will bring scattered showers/tstms to SBY this afternoon,
with a 20% chance or less elsewhere. A W to WNW wind of 10-15kt
is expected with gusts to 20-25kt.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail Friday into Saturday. A
chance of showers and degraded flight conditions return later
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain today for most waters due to
  elevated seas and gusty westerly winds.

- Possible Small Craft Conditions in the bay/rivers on Friday before
 a quieter weekend.

Low pressure is pushing offshore early this morning, which is
evident in the latest wind obs showing a shift to the N (at 10-
15kt). Buoy obs show seas at 6-8ft, and waves are 2-3ft. SCAs are in
effect for all bay and coastal zones. Winds shift to the west this
morning as the low moves further offshore and a cold front moves
through the region from the W. Winds will pick back up to 15-20kt
during the first half of the morning. SCAs for the rivers and
Currituck Sound will then go into effect. As the cold front crosses
local waters this afternoon, scattered showers/storms are
expected, primarily across northern waters. Did extend the SCA
for the lower bay into the early overnight hours since it looks
like gusts over 20kt will linger there. The offshore winds will
help seas diminish through the day, but expecting 5ft seas to
linger into the evening, at least for northern waters. Did go
ahead and extend the SCAs for these zones a few more hours given
guidance suggesting the 5ft seas will linger into tonight.
Waves will be 2-3ft today and overnight.

High pressure builds in from the NW Friday and into the weekend, but
the pressure gradient between the high and low pressure near
New England will keep westerly winds at ~15kt through Saturday.
There is the potential for another round of (marginal) SCA
conditions in the lower bay Friday night. Seas will gradually
diminish toward 3ft Friday- Saturday while waves in the
bay/rivers stay at 2-3ft. High pressure finally slides in
overhead on Sun, leading to lighter NW winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies remain at 1-2` above normal tide early this morning
in the Chesapeake Bay. Anomalies will likely drop off as the winds
turn to the W over the next few hours, but elevated tides are still
expected at many of the gages both in the lower and upper bay. The
morning high tide looks to reach upper action stage or low end minor
flood stage at sites such as Sewells, Windmill Point, Lewisetta, and
Bishops Head (and adjacent gages). Therefore, have raised Coastal
Flood Statements for areas adjacent to the lower James and the
Rappahannock/Potomac, as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/JKP
LONG TERM...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion