942
FXUS61 KAKQ 131739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
139 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

Lowered PoPs today slightly from previous forecast, raised PoPs
slightly for Saturday for the SW 1/2 of the CWA, otherwise, no
significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry today, with only isolated showers/storms for the
SW 1/2 of the area, then widely scattered showers/storms this
evening across southern VA and NE NC. Higher chances are expected
Friday afternoon-Friday night with a wave of low pressure riding
along a weakening frontal boundary.


2) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday
with a few afternoon showers/storms, then hot and humid with
afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today, with only isolated showers/storms
for the SW 1/2 of the area, then widely scattered showers/storms
this evening across southern VA and NE NC. Higher chances are
expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a wave of low pressure
riding along a weakening frontal boundary.

Current WX analysis indicates W-NW flow aloft with a subtle sfc
trough stretching SW from southern New England into the local
area. Dew pts are slightly higher than 24 hrs ago, mostly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. An area of mid level clouds is moving
through the northern 1/2 of the FA and will slide offshore and
diminish after sunrise. Overall, expect a mostly sunny day with
SCT aftn cumulus. Model soundings show fairly minimal instability
today despite higher temperatures and humidity compared to
yesterday. CAMs are not very excited about storms developing
which makes sense given the minimal instability, weak forcing
and low shear. We are not in any SVR or ERO risk today. as most
areas climb back into the lower 90s. Heat indices across the
region will range from the mid 90s across the north to around
100F in the south, with some of the typical areas along the
Albemarle sound into the lower 100s. May see the highest PoPs
(up to ~30%) this evening across NE NC and far SE VA.

On Friday, the models have actually diverged a bit with respect
to the evolution of the frontal boundary interacting with an
upper level shortwave passing through. the 00Z/13 NAM is noted
as a significant outlier, developing an anomalously strong sfc
low and indicated a strong MCS moving through later in the day.
The ECMWF has trended a bit to the N with instability as well,
but still nothing like the NAM, The GFS and CAMs show the
potential for rather disorganized showers/storms. Overall, this
leads to a high degree of uncertainty for the short range. If
Have generally broad-brushed PoPs in the high chc range (40-50%)
from Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Marginal SVR risk
is in place, as well as a Marginal ERO- basically highly
dependent on instability. If we get the instability, then a
more organized wind threat and heavy rain threat could
materialize, but as has been the case the past several days,
these MCS`s tracking in the W-NW flow aloft have been poorly
handled by the guidance. Warm/very humid ahead of the storms
Friday, with highs low-mid 90s NE NC, and in the mid-upper 80s
to the N.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday,
seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs mostly
in the mid to upper 80s in the wake of the cold front, though
more clouds and an isolated showers/storm will be possible in
the piedmont and across NE NC. The upper ridge starts to build
back into the region Saturday night/Sunday, and some of the
models even depict showers Saturday night. Scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday,
along with highs back around 90F for most of the area. The
expansive upper ridge across the southern U.S. will finally
start to break down and flow aloft will become more zonal. The
current forecast currently has the normal diurnally driven
afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Monday looks hot with aft storms possible. Heat
Advisories may be needed across at least the Se 1/2 of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies are being observed across the area, with no rain
in the vicinity. Cloud cover will increase tonight into tomorrow
morning, but will stay VFR. Winds will be from the north to
northwest this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

Note: An ongoing communication issue at the ORF ASOS has no
expected timeframe for resolution, but with hourly METARs coming
in as of this afternoon, have taken out AMD NOT SKED for the
time being.

Outlook: Scattered shower/storm coverage is expected Friday
afternoon into Friday night as a cold front drops south through
the region. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible.
Quieter conditions return on Saturday, with scattered
aftn/evening showers/storms possible Sunday-Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the rest
of the week and into the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit south
of the area stretching across Florida. This is allowing winds to
remain out of the SSW around 10kt. Seas this morning are around 1-
2ft across the bay and the nearshore ocean waters. While across the
20-60NM zone seas are around 2-3ft. Through the morning and into the
afternoon of today, winds will remain light (less than 10kt) and
variable across the area. Then by tonight, a wind shift is expected
as a very weak cold front moves from the north shifting winds to the
NE. Winds are still expected to remain around 10 kt with the shift
in direction. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much
through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and nearshore
waters and 2-3 ft across the 20-60NM zones. These benign marine
conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week and
through the weekend. The best chance for any shower and
thunderstorm across the waters is Friday. The next best possible
chance of elevated marine conditions is late Sunday into Monday AM
as a much stronger front approaches the area.


The Rip Risk through Saturday is low at all beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...HET

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion