388
FXUS61 KAKQ 041048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front drops into the Mid-Atlantic today, before
retreating back to the north Saturday morning. A higher chance
for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Sunday into Monday as
a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures
are expected early next week with the potential for below
freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 648 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Well above average temperatures Friday for most of the area,
except the Eastern Shore which will see milder temperatures.

- Scattered showers possible Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning, mainly north of Richmond.

Temperatures remained well above normal overnight, only
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. GOES Nighttime
Microphysics is depicting mostly cloudy skies this morning, made
up of some low clouds and an abundance of upper-level cloud
debris from the storms across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-
South. Some gusty winds are still present this morning due to
the moderately tightened gradient between the broad Bermuda
high and an area of low pressure across eastern Canada, with
land-based observation sites measuring occasional gusts of up
to 20 mph.

Another day of very warm temperatures is on tap for a majority of
the forecast area today. Southwesterly flow will prevail once again,
bringing in a muggy airmass. The saving grace for the Eastern Shore
and northern fringes of the FA from reaching 80 degrees will be a
backdoor cold front that will move through today. This boundary will
slide in from the NE, keeping temperatures on the Eastern Shore
capped in the lower to mid 70s and in the mid to upper 70s in the
Northern Neck and far northern counties. Areas that will not see the
front will reach the lower to mid 80s. As the front advances toward
the area, some scattered showers could accompany it. The highest
rain chances will be found in the northern half of the forecast
area, and will trail of the further south you go. Have maintained
chance PoPs for today, which is in line with MOS guidance. QPF
values look to be on the lower side today, but will gain a little
more traction overnight.

The front will slowly creep southward overnight, bringing
temperatures down into the lower 50s along the Eastern Shore and the
mid 50s NE to mid 60s SW with a gradient of temperatures in the
areas in between. Rain and thunder chances will increase
overnight and stretch a little farther southward as the front
droops. The highest swath of rain chances will still be centered
to the north, but scattered shower and isolated thunder
activity could possibly extend down as far the the VA/NC border
depending on just how far the front drops down. There is lower
confidence in this, so will keep chance PoPs for most of the
area for now. Depending on if showers can get going, the
environment will be somewhat favorable for thunderstorm
development, so have maintained slight chance of thunder before
the front starts to lift back northward tomorrow morning. As
this occurs, rain chances will taper off from south to north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Sunday afternoon through Monday along a cold front.

The backdoor cold front will continue to lift northwards during the
day Saturday, inviting well above normal temperatures back across
the area. Have nudged temperatures up a few degrees for Saturday
since the front will be lifting through a majority of the forecast
area Friday night, giving the warmer airmass time to filter in.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s on the Eastern Shore,
and range between the lower 80s in the NE to the mid to upper 80s in
the southern portion of the area. A strong ridge centered off the SE
coast in the western North Atlantic will remain in place through
Saturday, which will also aid in temperatures rebounding quickly.

By Saturday night, the stalled front that has been reeking havoc
on the Mid-South and Red River Valley area will finally start
to move towards the East Coast as the aforementioned ridge
starts to break down. The front is progged to move through the
area Sunday night through Monday morning. Abundant atmospheric
moisture, along with some instability and good forcing will be
present as the front moves through, which could lead to higher
rainfall rates. Statistical guidance is suggesting a good slug
of rainfall will accompany this front and that all of our
forecast area could likely see 0.5" or greater during this
event.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, seasonable temperatures return next week with possible
freezing low temperatures Tuesday night.

By Monday night, mostly of the rain will have moved offshore with
some trailing rainfall still possible in SE VA and NE NC. High
pressure will start to build in behind the front, and a drier, much
cooler airmass will begin to filter in. Temperatures will only reach
the 50s across the forecast area Tuesday, which is a few degrees
below normal for this time of year. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions will prevail Tuesday through the first part of Wednesday
night. With lighter winds and clear skies on Tuesday night,
radiational cooling is likely. Have dropped temperatures a degree or
two below guidance to account for this. A decent chunk of the
forecast area may see temperatures drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s, so Frost/Freeze products may need to be issued Tuesday night.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal again on
Wednesday, with highs still generally in the 50s. Flow will become
onshore, so high temperatures immediately along the coast may be a
few degrees cooler than inland.

Wednesday night there is good agreement that a shortwave will
start to approach the forecast area, so we will see increasing
cloudiness overnight. There is a chance for radiational cooling
again Wednesday night, but the window will be confined to the
first few hours of the night ahead of these clouds. Temperatures
will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Heading into the
latter part of next week is where global models start to diverge
on what becomes of the aforementioned shortwave, with widely
varying solutions. The details of the forecast will be ironed
out over the next few days as the details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 648 AM EDT Friday...

MVFR CIGS have slowly crept up for the south this morning, with ECG,
ORF, and PHF requiring TEMPOs earlier. These lowered ceilings
may stick around ECG for the next few hours before gradually
diminishing, with CIGS at ORF and PHF already washing out. MVFR
CIGS at SBY will by mid-morning as a backdoor cold front moves
across the terminal, bringing in a marine layer over the
terminal. The front will gradually progress from the NE to SW,
bringing a round of MVFR to IFR CIGs to all sites. This is
dependent on exactly how far south across our forecast area the
front progresses, but confidence has increased enough to put
MVFR/IFR prevailing lines at all sights for a few hours
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. There is also a chance
for some shower activity associated with the front as it moves
through, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAF at
this time. Will reassess the need for showers in the next update
cycle. Winds will be from the southwest for a majority of the
day aside from SBY where they front moves through first. After
the front moves through, winds will quickly become north, then
become north to northeast.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR conditions are likely tonight into early
Saturday. Dry/VFR Saturday afternoon and Sunday as the front
moves back north of the area. A cold front approaches from the
west Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday
bringing showers and a few tstms. Flight restrictions are
possible during this time period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions continue over the coastal waters N of Parramore
  Island this morning with persistent SE swell.

- Another period of SCA conditions is likely later this weekend and
  early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front.

Compressed pressure gradient between 1032+mb sfc high pressure
over Bermuda and low pressure over Quebec and Ontario is
maintaining SSW winds 15-20 kt over the local waters, highest
over the nearshore coastal zones and with a bit of enhancement
from channeling over the lower James and Ches Bay. Small Craft
will be allowed to drop on time later this morning at 4am, as
winds slowly diminish with winds turning to the W-SW. SCAs will
be extended for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island
with SSE Swell 3-4ft/6 seconds holding seas up in the 4-5 ft
range through mid-morning before seas subside a bit with winds
turning offshore. A cold front drops across the region from the
north-northeast from midday far northern waters and through this
afternoon farther south. Winds veer around to the NNE 10-15 kt
post-frontal, with the front likely to stall Friday evening
along or just south of the NE NC waters. A few gusts to ~20 kt
are possible coincident with the frontal passage, but expect
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA, and therefore no
additional headlines are planned at this time.

The front will lift back to the north as a warm front Saturday
midday into Saturday afternoon, with winds to veer back around
to the SSE then S, increasing to ~15 kt. Winds will increase
further Saturday night to ~20 kt with frequent 25 kt gusts as
the gradient tightens behind the previously referenced Bermuda
high and an approaching (stronger) cold front. SCA conditions
will likely begin later Saturday night and continue through
Monday, with a brief reprieve likely by Monday afternoon. Winds
peak during the day on Sunday, with speeds of 20-25 kt likely
with gusts as high as 30 kt (highest on the rivers/nearshore due
to better mixing over land). The front will move through the
area on Monday, with a secondary front moving through Monday
night into Tuesday. Good CAA is expected behind the secondary
front and another round of solid/high-end SCA conditions looking
increasingly likely Tuesday afternoon and evening through
Wednesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure briefly builds back
across the region, resulting in a decrease in wind speed by
Wednesday afternoon. Seas build back to 4-6 ft (with waves of
3-4 ft likely) by Sunday...and both seas and waves remain
elevated through early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...MAM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion