360
FXUS61 KAKQ 120007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
707 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower chances have increased for Thursday. Confidence remains high
in a prolonged period of low temperatures near or below freezing
beginning Friday night and continuing into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers are possible on Thursday as a series of cold
fronts approaches.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday into early next week with
below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers are possible on Thursday as a
series of cold fronts approaches.

Afternoon sfc analysis depicted high pressure over the area with
mostly sunny skies and temps as of 130 PM in the upper 60s to mid
70s across most of the area and mid 60s across the Eastern Shore.
Well to the west, a shortwave trough aloft was digging into western
portions of the Midwest. Cloud cover increases tonight into Thursday
morning as the shortwave approaches. Given partly cloudy skies
tonight, lows will be "mild" in the mid-upper 40s for most of the
area and lower 50s along the coast.

The shortwave moves into the local area Thursday morning, allowing
for an increase in cloud cover as well as a few isolated to
scattered light showers. The 12z HRRR and RRFS were in agreement
regarding these morning showers with the initial shortwave. As such,
have increased PoPs to 30-45% Thursday morning in a SW-NE
orientation across the NW half of the FA. These showers will likely
be light and brief with a break in the precip likely from mid-late
morning into early afternoon on Thursday. Breaks in the cloud cover
are expected behind the first round of showers. This will help
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s with dew points
in the low-mid 50s for most (locally upper 40s). Given the low dew
points, instability is expected to remain low with around 500 J/kg
of SBCAPE in the afternoon. However, given the strong trough over
the area brining with it cool temps aloft, mid-level lapse rates
increase to around 7 C/km (potentially up to 7.5 C/km for some). Low-
level lapse rates will be even higher with most models showing lapse
rates of >9 C/km. These lapse rates combined with the afternoon
clearing, a secondary piece of vorticity, and a cold front should
allow for scattered afternoon showers to develop in the lee of the
Appalachians and move east across the local area. The HRRR and RRFS
both show this convection. As such, confidence has increased in
afternoon showers. As such, have increased PoPs to 30-60% in the
afternoon with the best chance north of US-460 in the mid-late
afternoon. Additionally, while severe weather is not expected, gusty
winds will likely accompany the stronger showers. Pea-sized hail and
a few rumbles of thunder are even possible.

Any stronger showers should end quickly after sunset with the loss
of diurnal instability. However, both the HRRR and RRFS show
lingering, light stratiform precipitation (likely a combination
of drizzle and light rain) continuing into Thursday night behind
the cold front. The best chance for this is across central VA.
Any lingering showers likely end for most areas Thursday night
with a few lingering showers possible across the Eastern Shore
early Friday morning. While several rounds of showers are
possible Thursday, overall rainfall totals are still expected to
remain light with 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion