766
FXUS61 KAKQ 171813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
213 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No Significant changes has been made to the forecast. Below average
temperatures are expected through midweek, with a warming trend
expected late week into next weekend. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail the rest of this week into next weekend.&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely
for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through
Thursday morning.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day
Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into
next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 213 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely
for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through
Thursday morning.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a potent upper level trough
centered over the Great Lakes region. While at the surface a strong
low pressure continues to move off to the NE as high pressure over
the deep south continues to move into the area. The pressure
gradient across the area remains steady allowing for Westerly winds
to continue around 10-15 mph with gusts between 20-25mph.
Temperatures as of 2pm are in the low to middle 40s across the area
under moistly clear skies. By later this afternoon and into the
evening the upper level trough will slide across the region. This
will allow for clouds to increase especially across the north. The
12z CAMS continue to show a 700mb wave to move across the north
allowing for a brief period of light snow showers/ flurries over the
Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. With a slight increase in
these snow showers decided to add a slight chance of pops
(15-25%) across these area. A weak cold front is progged to move
across the coast behind the trough. with high pressure building
in over the area tonight/early Wed AM. Low temps are progged to
fall into low to middle 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s
along the coast. Some areas are likely to see a hard freeze with
these cold temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day
Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into
next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next
weekend.

The latest 12z ensemble guidance continues to show a strong upper
level ridge building over the central United States by late this
week and it building to the east by the weekend. Seasonable
temperatures are progged to return Thursday/Thursday night, with
warming trends starting Friday and continuing through the weekend.
There continues to remain a very weak signal for rain chances
through the week given upper level height rises and high
pressure at the surface. Therefore, dry weather conditions are
forecasted to prevail. The next best chance for precipitation is
by the end of the weekend as a cold front is progged to move
through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 106 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail along with a westerly wind of 10-15kt
with gusts to 20-25kt. VFR conditions prevail through tonight
as high pressure builds into the region. However, there is a
slight chance of snow showers near SBY early this evening and
into tonight. Since confidence is low in these snow showers no
prob30 or tempo has been added. Otherwise winds diminish to
5-10kt late this aftn and evening, and then shift to N/NE less
than 10kt later tonight behind a weak cold front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions continue Wednesday through Saturday
with diminishing winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect tonight-Wednesday AM for the bay and ocean for
NNW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 3-6 foot seas.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through at
least part of the weekend.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday
following a cold frontal passage.

Winds have relaxed this afternoon and are W-NW at 10-15 kt. Seas are
likely 3-5 ft, though with the lack of buoy obs across the northern
waters it is hard to tell for sure. Winds become more NNW-NW this
evening/tonight following a secondary surge of CAA. A brief uptick
in winds will accompany this surge, and have issued SCAs for the bay
from 8 PM-4 AM, and have extended the headlines for the ocean until
10 AM Wed (mainly for seas). Admittedly the SCA is marginal for the
ocean, but NNW winds of 15-20 kt are usually enough to allow seas to
increase to 5 ft. Winds gradually diminish during the day on Wed,
with speeds of 5-10 kt expected by early afternoon. Benign marine
conditions with winds aob 10 kt will continue through the end of the
work week as high pressure builds over the waters. Southerly winds
increase to ~15 kt this weekend ahead of another seasonably strong
cold front. That front is progged to cross the area Sunday night-
Monday, which will shift winds to the north and likely bring a round
of solid SCAs to the waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...AC/ERI

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion