606
FXUS61 KAKQ 271914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories across the lower
  Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers have expired or will
  expire soon.

- Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for
  the upper Chesapeake Bay tonight-early Monday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread cloudiness continues across most of the area
today as low pressure continues to spin off the New Jersey
coast. Some lingering light rain will persist on the lower
Maryland Eastern Shore through this evening.

2) A warming trend trend will bring above average high temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with dry/pleasant
conditions.

3) Coastal flooding impacts will gradually wrap up across the
lower Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers today. A few more
rounds of mainly minor flooding is possible with the upcoming
high tides in the upper bay through tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread cloudiness continues across most of the
area today as low pressure continues to spin off the New Jersey
coast. Some lingering light rain will persist on the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore through this evening.

A nicer day for most as winds have decreased and temps have
increased compared to the past few days. The pesky and persistent
low pressure system, which has been responsible for the unsettled
weather and coastal flooding (see key message 2), remains just N of
the area, centered (at ~1000 mb) over southern New Jersey. The one
exception is across the lower MD Eastern Shore where continued waves
of light rain and drizzle continue to permeate, which is also
keeping the temps around 60 degrees. Elsewhere, temps have generally
warmed into the 70s under rather widespread cloudiness.

Expect some decrease in cloud cover tonight as the low moves back
offshore and drifts NE toward coastal New England. However, thicker
clouds will still remain prevalent across northern portions of our
area. Lows range from the mid 50s to around 60 F. Winds will also
further subside as the pressure gradient relaxes further, with just
some mild gustiness persisting along the immediate coast of the
Eastern Shore.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend trend will bring above average high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with
dry/pleasant conditions.

The low pressure system should be a shell of its former self by
later Monday and Tuesday, with just a weak sfc reflection and
limited moisture as it slowly traverses the nearshore waters off of
the Canadian Maritimes. Locally, a rather substantial warming trend
begins Monday and continues through the end of the week. Highs
Monday range from the upper 60s/around 70 F on the Eastern Shore to
the mid-upper 70s for mainland VA and NC. Highs Tuesday begin to
flirt with the 80s again, followed by widespread 80s Wednesday and
potentially near 90 F Thursday and Friday. Several degrees cooler
each day on the Eastern Shore. The sfc and upper-air synoptics
support dry wx through most of the work week. By late Friday into
the weekend, some sort of southern stream or elongated frontal
system could bring precip chances back to the region. However, there
is poor agreement across deterministic and ensemble guidance on the
evolution of any potential system; thus, PoPs are only 20-40% from
the blended guidance.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal flooding impacts will gradually wrap up
across the lower Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers today. A few
more rounds of mainly minor flooding is possible with the upcoming
high tides in the upper bay through tomorrow.

After numerous days of moderate to major tidal flooding, it appears
that the last significant tide of this event has occurred or will
occur by late this afternoon. Low pressure near the NJ coast will
move NE while weakening. This will allow the N-NW winds to decrease
rather rapidly this evening into the overnight hours. It will take
some time for the water to move out of the Chesapeake Bay, but it
should gradually do so due to strong ebb tides at the mouth of
Chesapeake Bay expected per CBOFS. As such, will allow all coastal
flood warnings to expire later today. A few locations will need
advisories tonight to cover residual minor flooding in the middle
Chesapeake Bay due to the elevated anomalies and continued higher
astronomical tides in association with the lunar cycle, but
moderate flooding is not expected overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread clouds remain across central/eastern VA and the lower
MD Eastern Shore this afternoon as low pressure continues to
spin along the NJ coast. CIGs are generally in the VFR range,
though pesky IFR CIGs are present at SBY and may linger through
most of the forecast period. On and off -RA or DZ is also
possible here through the daylight hours. Heading into tonight,
expect clouds at the VA and NC terminals to scatter out some w/
VFR continuing. The wind direction remains generally W/WNW
through early Monday, with wind gusts up to 20-25 kt this
afternoon. Wind speeds decrease below 10 kt tonight.

Outlook: MVFR CIGs may linger through Monday at SBY. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR is expected through most of the upcoming week as
high pressure settles near the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-After one last brief surge of wind late this afternoon and
 early this evening, conditions will rapidly improve on Monday.

The strong Nor`easter near the southern New Jersey coastline will
move northeast and decrease in intensity tonight. After one last
surge of wind this afternoon as the low is at it`s closest approach
to the area, expect NW winds to decrease rather rapidly later
tonight into Monday morning. In fact, by Monday afternoon, weak
ridging will move over the area which should allow for west winds of
10 kt or less. Given the latest trends, will hold onto the SCA for
the middle bay a tad longer this evening, ending it at 4am vs. 1am.
Otherwise, will continue with an expiration time of 8pm for the
Upper James, York and Rappahannock Rivers, and 1am for the remainder
of the SCA.

High pressure builds over the area through Tuesday, then gradually
shifts offshore by Thursday. This should allow for tranquil marine
conditions through Wednesday, with a southerly wind increasing to 15
kt on Thursday ahead of the next frontal system.

Seas still elevated this afternoon with 2 to 3 feet in the bay and 4
to 7 feet over the ocean. By Monday evening, expect seas 1 ft or
less in the bay and 2 to 3 ft over the ocean.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075-
     077-078-085-086.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ075-077-078-085-086.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ076-
     521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089-
     090-099-100-524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ631-632-634-
     639-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     635>637.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW/MRD
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MRD

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion