000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
937 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast
coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Quasi-stationary front and weak low pressure is situated just
SW of the FA at this hour. A cold front is located to our W
along the spine of the Appalachians. Aloft, there is a broad
trough over the NE Plains into to the Great Lakes. Temps remain
on the raw/chilly side (and on the lower end of most guidance)
as a maritime airmass continues to spill onshore (especially
along the coast). This is leading to temps in the 50s for most
of the area, except in the far SW where there some low-mid 60s
persist. Noting some isolated to scattered showers in NE NC and
SE VA. W/ some very weak elevated instability (MUCAPE 200 J/kg
or less), cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two here over
the next hr or so.

The cold front will inch closer to the later tonight, crossing
the area early Saturday morning. Still expecting widely
scattered showers to accompany the FROPA with generally chance
PoPs spreading from W to E. While instability remains in short
supply, mesoanalysis and short-term models advertise a modest
increase in MUCAPE as the front inches closer. Thus, will
continue carrying a slight chc thunder, mainly S and SE of
Richmond. This coincides w/ some CAMs showing some heavier
showers and some low values of lightning density. Not expecting
temps to drop off much tonight given thick cloud cover. Lows
will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning,
and isolated to perhaps sctd showers will likely linger along the
immediate coast to start the day. We should see at least partial
clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier
air filters in behind the front. Forecast highs are in the low 70s
in the piedmont and upper 60s E of I-95.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps
will drop into the 40s NW to around 50 in the far SE. Sun through
Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move
out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that
rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern
half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds
and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the upper 50s to
around 60. The northwestern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see
highs in the low 60s. Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE
counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will generally be
in the low 40s inland and mid 40s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties early Mon
morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to
mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest
central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the
area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front
brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening.
Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s),
temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure
building into/over the area for Thu. Highs range through the 70s
(warmest S) Wed. Lows Wed night range through the 40s (coolest NW).
Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Marine airmass continues to linger near the coast this evening
with IFR CIGs (800-900 ft) at ORF/ECG and MVFR CIGs (1000-2000
ft) at PHF/SBY. Elsewhere, conditions are VFR w/ varying CIGs.
Expect clouds/CIGs to lower and become more widespread over the
next few hrs and especially overnight. IFR- LIFR CIGs are likely
at all sites and will tend to persist through at least the mid-
morning hrs, before a cold front moves through the area.
Degraded flight conditions linger the longest Saturday across
the SE, with improvement not expected at ORF/ECG until 18-21z.
Showers are also expected with the front tonight into early
Saturday, but expect these to be widely scattered. Also cannot
rule out a brief tstm, especially at ORF and ECG. Low clouds
slowly clear from NW to SE Sat as winds turn northerly.

Outlook: Rain chances return later Sun into early Mon, as low
pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out
to sea Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

NE winds have become more easterly this afternoon as high
pressure has been building south. Winds are generally 5 to 15
kt across the entire area. Seas are still running 5 ft over the
northern coastal waters and 4 ft from Cape Charles south. The
Bay was around 1 foot with some 2 ft. With 5 ft seas persisting
over the northern waters and another surge expected late tonight
into early Sat, have extended the SCA into Sat morning. SCA
elsewhere have been allowed to expire.

Another cold front drops across the region late tonight (Fri
night) into Saturday morning. High res models have slowed the
timing of the surge more into Saturday morning. Winds swing
around to the NW then NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should
be mainly sub- SCA given weak cool-air advection though a brief
period of gusts to 20 kt is likely on the Bay and ocean. Winds
should decrease some Sat afternoon ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again Saturday night as yet another front
pushes south and again increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20
kt, but look to remain below sub- SCA at this time. This surge
is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease some
later on Sunday.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and
into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and
building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly)
need SCA over southern coastal waters from Cape Charles south by
the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just
below for now.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 800 PM EST Friday...

Tidal anomalies remain elevated across the upper portions of the
Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac this evening. Multiple strong flood
tides at the mouth of the Bay followed by weaker ebb tides have
contributed to the higher water levels across the upper Bay.
The most recent flood tide was not as strong compared to the
last few tides, so expect water levels to gradually begin to
diminish later tonight into Saturday morning. Based on the
latest trends, have opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
locations along the tidal Potomac/Northern Neck and for Bay
facing portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the
potential for minor tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide.
Additional minor tidal flooding will be possible with the
Saturday AM high tide, especially for sensitive locations such
as Bishops Head, MD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/SW
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion